AUG 31, 2026 · JOURNAL ARTICLE
Trends in the burden of fire, heat, and hot substances in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990–2023: an analysis of the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study
Tropical Medicine and Health
A large, rigorous secondary analysis of established GBD data with robust methods (joinpoint regression, decomposition, age-period-cohort modelling) confirming that thermal injury burden in North Africa and the Middle East declined age-standardized over 1990–2023, consistent with global injury control trends.
Reported
Age-standardized DALY rate trend…−2.6
Age-standardized incidence rate c…0.61%
Absolute prevalence increase, Qat…exceeding 300%