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Burn Injury Management and Outcomes · Journal article
Tropical Medicine and Health · August 31, 2026
Reinforces what was already believed, rather than introducing something new.
This secondary analysis of GBD 2023 data documents a significant decline in age-standardized DALY and death rates from fire, heat, and hot substances in the North Africa and Middle East region from 1990 to 2023 (EAPC −2.6), driven by improvements in age-specific epidemiological rates that outweighed demographic pressure from population growth and ageing. However, recent joinpoint analysis identified a reversal in age-standardized incidence rates during 2020–2023 (APC 0.61%), and absolute burden increased substantially in several countries, requiring continued surveillance and targeted prevention strategies.
Secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2023 study using joinpoint regression, decomposition analysis, and age-period-cohort modelling. All residents of 21 countries and territories in North Africa and the Middle East region, included in the GBD 2023 study.. Compared with: Comparison across 34 years (1990–2023) with decomposition of demographic and epidemiological drivers. North Africa and the Middle East (21 countries and territories).
Age-standardized DALY rate for FHHS declined significantly from 1990 to 2023 with EAPC of −2.6 Absolute prevalence increased in most countries, with increases exceeding 300% in Qatar and United Arab Emirates Joinpoint analysis identified an increase in age-standardized incidence rate during 2020–2023 with APC of 0.61%
Absolute mortality numbers and rates are not reported; only age-standardized and age-period-cohort trends are described
Clinicians and public health professionals in the NAME region should recognize that while age-standardized burden from thermal injuries has declined substantially over three decades, the recent upturn in incidence rates post-2020 and increasing absolute burden in rapidly growing and ageing populations warrant renewed investment in prevention, early treatment access, and targeted interventions for vulnerable age groups.
A large, rigorous secondary analysis of established GBD data with robust methods (joinpoint regression, decomposition, age-period-cohort modelling) confirming that thermal injury burden in North Africa and the Middle East declined age-standardized over 1990–2023, consistent with global injury control trends.
As stated by the source record.
Quoted from the source exactly as published.
Clinicians and public health professionals in the NAME region should recognize that while age-standardized burden from thermal injuries has declined substantially over three decades, the recent upturn in incidence rates post-2020 and increasing absolute burden in rapidly growing and ageing populations warrant renewed investment in prevention, early treatment access, and targeted interventions for vulnerable age groups.
Graded across the dimensions that decide whether you should act, each from what the source actually supports. There is no single score, and where a dimension was not assessed it says so.
BACKGROUND: Thermal injuries from fire, heat, and hot substances (FHHS) pose a significant public health challenge in North Africa and the Middle East (NAME). Comprehensive, long-term regional analyses, particularly those including the post-pandemic period, are limited. This study leverages Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to provide a comprehensive assessment of the FHHS burden in the NAME region from 1990 to 2023, analyzing the distinct effects of age, period, and cohort to inform targeted interventions. METHODS: This study utilized FHHS data from the GBD 2023 for the 21 countries and territories of the NAME region. We analyzed trends in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The analysis employed joinpoint regression to identify temporal trend changes, decomposition analysis to isolate the effects of population growth, aging, and epidemiology, and an age-period-cohort model to delineate generational and age-specific risks. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized DALY rate for FHHS in NAME declined significantly (EAPC, - 2.6). Absolute prevalence increased in most countries, with increases exceeding 300% in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Joinpoint analysis identified an increase in ASIR during 2020-2023 (APC, 0.61%). Decomposition showed that population growth and ageing exerted upward pressure on absolute counts. For deaths, however, these positive demographic contributions were more than offset by favorable changes in age-specific epidemiological rates, resulting in a small net regional decline. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2023, NAME achieved substantial reductions in age-standardized DALY and death rates from FHHS. Population growth and ageing increased pressure on absolute prevalence and incidence, whereas improved age-specific epidemiological rates outweighed these pressures for deaths. The recent change in ASIR and the increasing burden in older age groups warrant continued surveillance and targeted prevention.
Taken from the source record, never inferred. Follow any of these and new work involving them reaches your briefing.