Mosquito Borne Diseases and Control · Journal article

Dinamika Epidemiologi Demam Berdarah Dengue dalam Perspektif Kesehatan Masyarakat: Tren Satu Dekade dan Variabilitas Iklim di Nusa Tenggara Barat

Malahayati Nursing Journal · August 29, 2026

Preliminary Why this matters to you Expert discussion

Early or partial results. Treat as a signal, not a conclusion.

AI Summary

This is a descriptive ecological study of dengue epidemiology in West Nusa Tenggara over 2015–2024 that explores associations between climate variables and dengue incidence. Relative humidity showed the most consistent positive association with dengue incidence, but the small number of time points, confounding by major events, and modest statistical measures (R² up to 0.45, p = 0.071 when pandemic years excluded) limit causal inference. The time-series model captured short-term variability but performed poorly predictively (MAPE 44%), suggesting that climate factors alone are insufficient to forecast dengue risk in this setting.

What was studied

Descriptive epidemiological study with exploratory linear regression and time-series analysis. Population of West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia; annual aggregated dengue surveillance data and meteorological records.. West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), Indonesia.

Key findings

Dengue incidence ranged from 10.7 to 88.9 per 100,000 population (mean 51.7/100,000) over the 10-year period. Case fatality rate was consistently below 2% across all years. Relative humidity showed positive association with incidence (B ≈ +9.8, R² up to 0.45, p = 0.071 when pandemic years excluded).

Safety

Safety was not reported in the material analysed. Check the source before drawing any conclusion about harm.

Who this may help

This work reinforces that dengue epidemiology in tropical regions is multifactorial and that relative humidity may warrant closer monitoring in surveillance systems. However, the modest predictive performance and confounding by external events (earthquakes, pandemic) limit its immediate application for dengue forecasting or clinical decision-making without integration with other data sources and local surveillance strengthening.

Plain-language summary

A descriptive epidemiological study with exploratory regression and time-series modeling over a 10-year period in a single region; findings on climate associations are present but modest in effect size and statistical power, and prediction accuracy is limited.

Study design

As stated by the source record.

MethodsSecondary annual data from 2015 to 2024 were analyzed, including dengue incidence, mortality, case fatality rate, and meteorological indicators (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, rainy days, sunshine duration). Descriptive statistics were performed, followed by simple linear regression to explore relationships between climate variables and dengue incidence. Time-series modeling using Holt's exponential smoothing was applied to assess short-term variability and predictive capacity. Pandemic years were excluded from some regression analyses.

DesignDescriptive epidemiological study with exploratory linear regression and time-series analysis

PopulationPopulation of West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia; annual aggregated dengue surveillance data and meteorological records.

SettingWest Nusa Tenggara (NTB), Indonesia

Reported figures

Quoted from the source exactly as published.

Dengue incidence range10.7 to 88.9 per 100,000 population

Mean dengue incidence51.7 per 100,000 population

Case fatality rate (CFR)consistently below 2%

Relative humidity regression coefficientB ≈ +9.8

Relative humidity R²up to 0.45

Relative humidity p-value (pandemic years excluded)p = 0.071

Time-series stationary R²0.82

Time-series mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)44%

Clinical bottom line

Caveats

Only 10 annual data points; insufficient statistical power to detect weak associations or establish causation.
Confounding from major events (2018 earthquake, COVID-19) acknowledged but not fully controlled; pandemic years had to be excluded from some analyses.
Ecological study design precludes individual-level causal inference; associations may reflect unmeasured confounders.
Time-series prediction error was high (MAPE 44%), indicating limited forecasting utility; source does not report confidence intervals for incidence estimates or effect sizes for temperature and sunshine variables.

Evidence assessment

Graded across the dimensions that decide whether you should act, each from what the source actually supports. There is no single score, and where a dimension was not assessed it says so.

Study design

limited

Descriptive secondary data analysis with simple linear regression; no control group or randomization.

Directness

moderate

Population-level dengue incidence and climate data directly relevant; ecological study cannot establish individual-level causation.

Consistency

limited

Rainfall and rainy days showed weak and inconsistent associations; relative humidity most consistent but others variable.

Risk of bias

limited

Secondary data, confounding by earthquakes and COVID-19 pandemic acknowledged; pandemic years had to be excluded from some analyses.

Sample adequacy

limited

Only 10 annual data points (2015–2024) for regression; time-series analysis shows high prediction error (MAPE 44%).

Source abstract

ABSTRACT Dengue hemorrhagic fever remains a pressing public health concern in tropical regions, although the influence of climatic factors varies across local settings. This study aims to describe the epidemiological patterns of dengue over a ten-year period in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), Indonesia, and to examine its association with climate variability. Secondary annual data from 2015 to 2024 were analyzed, including dengue incidence, mortality, and case fatality rate (CFR), along with meteorological indicators such as average and maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, number of rainy days, and duration of sunshine. Descriptive statistics were performed, followed by simple linear regression to explore potential relationships. Time series modeling was applied to assess predictive capacity. Dengue incidence ranged from 10.7 to 88.9 per 100,000 population (mean 51.7/100,000), with CFR consistently below 2%. Annual variations coincided with major disruptive events, including the 2018 earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic. Linear regression analysis demonstrated consistent patterns: relative humidity showed a positive association with incidence (B ≈ +9.8, R² up to 0.45, p = 0.071 when pandemic years were excluded), whereas average temperature and sunshine duration exhibited inverse relationships. Rainfall and number of rainy days showed weak and inconsistent associations. Time series analysis using Holt’s exponential smoothing captured short-term variability (stationary R² = 0.82) but produced relatively high prediction error (MAPE 44%). In NTB, dengue incidence fluctuates annually and is influenced by climatic variability as well as extraordinary events such as earthquakes and the COVID-19 pandemic. Relative humidity appears to be the most consistent climatic determinant. Time series modeling reflects short-term trends but lacks precision, underscoring the importance of strengthening local surveillance systems. Keywords: Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Climate Variability, Epidemiology, Humidity, West Nusa Tenggara. ABSTRAK Demam berdarah dengue masih menjadi masalah kesehatan masyarakat yang mendesak di wilayah tropis, namun pengaruh iklim bervariasi antar konteks lokal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menggambarkan epidemiologi demam berdarah dengue selama satu dekade di Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB), Indonesia, dan mengkaji hubungannya dengan variabilitas iklim. Data tahunan sekunder dari tahun 2015–2024 dianalisis, meliputi insiden demam berdarah, mortalitas, dan tingkat fatalitas kasus (CFR) beserta indikator meteorologi (suhu rata-rata dan maksimum, kelembapan relatif, curah hujan, hari hujan, dan durasi sinar matahari). Statistik deskriptif dilakukan, dilanjutkan dengan regresi linier sederhana untuk mengeksplorasi hubungan. Pemodelan deret waktu diterapkan untuk menilai potensi prediktif. Insiden dengue berkisar antara 10,7 dan 88,9 per 100.000 penduduk (rata-rata 51,7/100.000), dengan CFR secara konsisten di bawah 2%. Fluktuasi tahunan bertepatan dengan peristiwa anomali seperti gempa bumi tahun 2018 dan pandemi COVID-19. Regresi linier menunjukkan tren yang konsisten: kelembapan relatif berkorelasi positif dengan insiden (B ≈ +9,8, R² hingga 0,45, p = 0,071 ketika tahun pandemi tidak termasuk), sementara suhu rata-rata dan durasi sinar matahari berkorelasi terbalik. Curah hujan dan hari hujan memberikan kontribusi asosiasi yang lemah dan tidak konsisten. Analisis deret waktu (pemulusan eksponensial Holt) menangkap variabilitas jangka pendek (R² stasioner = 0,82) tetapi menunjukkan kesalahan prediksi yang tinggi (MAPE 44%). Di NTB, insiden demam berdarah berfluktuasi setiap tahun, dipengaruhi oleh variasi iklim serta kejadian luar biasa seperti gempa bumi dan wabah COVID-19. Kelembapan menunjukkan hubungan paling konsisten dengan insiden. Pemodelan deret waktu mencerminkan pola jangka pendek tetapi kurang presisi, sehingga menyoroti pentingnya sistem pengawasan lokal. Kata Kunci: Demam Berdarah, Perubahan Iklim, Epidemiologi, Kelembaban, Nusa Barat Tenggara.

Follow from this

Taken from the source record, never inferred. Follow any of these and new work involving them reaches your briefing.

Nurhidayati NurhidayatiEva Hikmatul DamayantiDeasy IrawatiMarisa SyavitriMosquito Borne Diseases and Control