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Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research · Journal article
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases · August 12, 2026
Early or partial results. Treat as a signal, not a conclusion.
This is a descriptive epidemiological study documenting 20 years of cholera surveillance in Dhaka, identifying demographic shifts, seasonal patterns, and associations between climate variables (temperature, rainfall, humidity) and cholera risk. The findings are observational and hypothesis-generating; they do not establish causation or test interventions, but suggest environmental drivers and a recent resurgence that warrant investigation and public health planning.
Retrospective surveillance analysis with distributed lag non-linear modelling. Cholera patients identified through 2% surveillance at icddr,b in Dhaka, Bangladesh; confirmed cases analysed (n = 6,141 of 37,361 total records).. n = 37,361. Dhaka, Bangladesh (single centre: icddr,b).
Adults (>18 years) accounted for 65% of 6,141 confirmed cholera cases, representing a significant demographic shift. 48% of cases occurred during the pre-monsoon period, demonstrating pronounced seasonality. Incidence peaked between 2004 and 2008, with a recent resurgence noted from 2019 to 2024.
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Clinicians and public health officials should consider the observed age shift toward adults when planning cholera prevention and vaccination campaigns in Dhaka. The climate associations (temperature, rainfall, humidity) may inform early warning systems and seasonal preparedness, though causation is not established and local validation is needed.
A retrospective surveillance analysis with 20 years of observational data and environmental associations using distributed lag models; descriptive findings on trends and climate correlations without a control group or causal inference, raising hypotheses rather than proving interventions.
As stated by the source record.
Quoted from the source exactly as published.
Clinicians and public health officials should consider the observed age shift toward adults when planning cholera prevention and vaccination campaigns in Dhaka. The climate associations (temperature, rainfall, humidity) may inform early warning systems and seasonal preparedness, though causation is not established and local validation is needed.
Graded across the dimensions that decide whether you should act, each from what the source actually supports. There is no single score, and where a dimension was not assessed it says so.
Cholera remains a critical public health challenge in Dhaka, Bangladesh, influenced by complex environmental and demographic drivers. This study analyzed around 20 years of 2% surveillance data (2004–2024) from icddr,b (n = 37,361) to investigate long-term trends and climatic associations using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs). Climate data (temperature, rainfall, humidity) were obtained from NASA’s Earth Data archives. Findings reveal a significant demographic shift, with adults (>18 years) accounting for 65% of the 6,141 confirmed cholera cases. Seasonality was pronounced; 48% of cases occurred during the pre-monsoon period. While incidence peaked between 2004 and 2008, a recent resurgence was noted from 2019 to 2024. Environmental analysis showed a positive association between temperature and cholera risk, with relative risk (RR) rising from 0.75 at 20°C to 1.10 at 40°C. Precipitation emerged as a major driver, with risk peaking at 150 mm (RR = 1.5), high humidity (90%) also correlated with increased risk (RR = 1.10). The high burden among adults necessitates age-inclusive interventions, including targeted vaccination and WASH measures. Integrating climate data into early warning systems and expanding surveillance to informal settlements are vital for future outbreak prediction and control.
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