Life sciences · Preprint
arXiv · September 8, 2026
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This preprint proposes a machine learning framework for controllable Earth-system emulation via transition-action pretraining and masked response learning, tested on simulated ecosystem dynamics across six regions. The work is a methodological contribution at feasibility stage with no peer review, clinical application, or validation against real ecological interventions reported.
Computational methodology study; proof-of-concept framework testing on simulated data. Simulated terrestrial ecosystem data (no real populations or organisms). Intervention: Action-conditioned state transitions and partial state edits via masked response learning. Six global regions (specific locations not named in abstract).
Model preserves long-horizon emulation accuracy while enabling controllable structural interventions Masked response learning enables coherent responses in coupled ecosystem-cycle variables under partial state edits Framework tested across six global regions and multiple stand ages
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Early-stage machine learning methodology study demonstrating proof-of-concept for controllable Earth-system emulation without clinical validation, peer review, or real-world intervention testing.
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Machine learning emulators have become essential for accelerating expensive Earth-system simulations, but most existing approaches remain passive forecasters: they reproduce simulator trajectories under prescribed forcings without an explicit interaction mechanism for user-specified interventions. This limits their use in interactive scientific workflows and Earth-system digital twins, where users often need to explore how a system would respond if selected state components were changed. We propose an action-conditioned world-modeling framework for Earth-system emulation that reformulates simulator trajectories as supervision for controllable state-transition learning. The key idea is transition-action pretraining: naturally observed state changes are treated as label-free action supervision, allowing the model to learn both prescribed dynamics and action-conditioned responses without manually annotated interventions. We further introduce masked response learning to infer unobserved variables under partial state edits and learn coupled system dependencies. We test this framework on ecosystem dynamics across six global regions and multiple stand ages. Experiments show that the model preserves competitive long-horizon emulation accuracy while enabling controllable structural interventions and coherent responses in coupled ecosystem-cycle variables. These results suggest a practical route from passive Earth-system emulators toward interactive, intervention-aware scientific surrogates.
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