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Life sciences · Preprint
arXiv · September 18, 2026
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Learning to defer asks a predictive system when to act autonomously and when to defer to a human expert. Population-adaptive deferral extends this problem to unseen experts using a small context set of expert behavior. Neural context encoders such as L2D-Pop can be query-dependent, but may learn routing shortcuts tied to absolute class coordinates. Identity-Free Deferral (IFD) removes such shortcuts through role-indexed classwise competence profiles, but its estimates are constant within each class and cannot capture instance-level expert specialization. We propose RACER---Role-Aligned Competence Estimation for Routing---a role-relative framework for estimating an unseen expert's competence from context. RACER estimates the posterior-predictive probability that the expert is correct on a query under each candidate class role, then combines these estimates with the model posterior to obtain the Bayes-relevant expert-correctness probability. Nonparametric and neural kernel-pooling estimators use candidate-role relations, shared aggregation, and symmetric summaries, excluding absolute class-identity channels. We prove coherent class-relabelling invariance, derive a Bayes-aligned deferral surrogate, and give a plug-in regret bound relating routing regret to classifier and competence-estimation error. On controlled synthetic benchmarks, including a PathMNIST histopathology context-scaling study with simulated experts, RACER benefits from additional context under hidden subtype dependence and gives the strongest aggregate performance on a separately sampled unseen-expert split in the CIFAR-100 synthetic experiments. On the radiologist and human--AI chest-radiography benchmarks (VinDr-CXR and CheXpert), the RACER family is competitive or best in budget-swept deferral, with calibration results varying across metrics and datasets.