Life sciences · Preprint
arXiv · September 9, 2026
Posted before peer review. The findings may change or fail to hold.
This is an unrefereed preprint introducing View-Structured Conformal Prediction (VSCP), a computational method to quantify uncertainty in 3D Gaussian Splatting novel-view synthesis. The method achieves stated coverage targets (91.7–92.0% view-event coverage at 90% target) with reduced prediction interval width compared to baselines, but remains a technical algorithm paper without peer review or application to clinical or biological domains.
Preprint. Intervention: View-Structured Conformal Prediction (VSCP): a method that factorizes prediction scale into spatial shape from renderer and view-difficulty factor, with view-wise quantile adjustment for finite-sample validity. Compared with: Pixel-pooled calibration, constant-scale baseline, ten-model ensemble, 3DGS-U baseline, Mip-NeRF 360 with different densification backbone.
Pixel-pooled calibration reaches 89.9% marginal pixel coverage but only 61.4% view-event coverage at 90% target; VSCP reaches 91.7–92.0% VSCP cuts width by 22.1% against constant scale and matches ten-model ensemble's 21.0% reduction using only one model per scene VSCP improves on 3DGS-U baseline by 4.7 points (p=0.0225)
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This is an arXiv preprint describing a novel computational method for uncertainty quantification in 3D rendering; it has not undergone peer review and reports primarily technical metrics rather than clinical or translational outcomes.
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3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) renders novel views in real time, but an uncertainty heatmap does not certify that a rendered view meets a certain prediction coverage. We treat novel-view synthesis as structured regression and ask that, with probability at least $1-α$, RGB prediction boxes cover at least a $1-β$ fraction of pixels in a new view. We propose View-Structured Conformal Prediction (VSCP). It splits the pre-calibration scale into a spatial shape from the renderer and a transferable view-difficulty factor, which predicts the smallest view-wise multiplier that shape needs. A held-out quantile over views (View-CP) then gives finite-sample validity even when transferring to new scenes. The same factorization makes the analysis exact: a conformity score is the ratio of oracle to predicted view difficulty, and excess width separates into a test-side and a calibration-side term. Across 13 real scenes, pixel-pooled calibration reaches 89.9\% marginal pixel coverage but only 61.4\% view-event coverage at a 90\% target, while View-CP reaches 91.7--92.0\%. At matched coverage VSCP cuts width by 22.1\% against a constant scale, and matches a ten-model ensemble's 21.0\% reduction using only one model per scene and four rather than ten rasterization passes per query. VSCP also improves on the closest single-model baseline, the 3DGS-U field, by 4.7 points ($p=0.0225$). The view predictor transfers from bounded source families to all nine unbounded Mip-NeRF~360 scenes. There the full scale beats the constant scale with 20.7\% width saving on all nine scenes. It also keeps an 18.3\% saving under a different densification backbone and runs at 216--280 FPS on an RTX~4090.
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